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2 coms win rate

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3 years ago
Are there any hard statistics for the winrate whenever a team gets a player with 2 coms? I have a feeling that the team with less players almost always loses.
+0 / -0
Depends on the size of the team. I won most of the time I have 2 coms (base on recent records). I have issue with elo calculation though, it seems I'm stuck in a specific elo range. I either get straight wins then straight loss or equal wins with equal losses, floating between 2200 to 2300 elo.
+0 / -0
3 years ago
I did a 40 games survey of 2 coms for 1 team 3-ish months ago:

quote:
Team with 2 coms for 1 player lost 26 and won 14 battles from total of 40.


Some people can do 2 coms pretty well. Most not.

Feels like this is a balance thing thats not really getting attention it should already get. But whateverz.

---

And elo is strange. Now when I lose a game I will lose a lot of points and win gives 1 point back. I was purple months ago, in few weeks at this rate Im soon a white blue. Go figure. Some people deserve to be purple, some people feel like they just get thrown to, say, top 20 players only to start a climb down.
+1 / -0
3 years ago
Well, time well spent; I looked at 4 different average players recent game results, so that they are not likely to be the people getting the 2nd com and influence the result, and also excluding games where I was involved, and in 56 battles the team with 2 coms lost 2 battles more. So that doesnt tell much.

And psaniac, your recent 33 uneven games resulted to 2 coms team losing 1 more battle.

Maybe its somehow fixed already? But whateverz.
+1 / -0
3 years ago
And spying on one more person involved in this thread(not me), 75 recent games: 44 wins and 31 losses where 2 coms were involved.

2 com op!

Same person 4+ months old games: 35 games and 2 com team lost 3 more battles than won.
+0 / -0
quote:
35 games and 2 com team lost 3 more battles than won.

So 16 vs 19. That's not very good evidence of double com being OP, but it's adequate evidence of the double com mechanism being accurately understood by the balancing system.

quote:
And spying on one more person involved in this thread(not me), 75 recent games: 44 wins and 31 losses where 2 coms were involved.

This seems the only one of the people-samples that diverges from roughly 50% chance. Interesting, but attributable to that guy being on a roll at that point, and even then the effect size seems fairly small.

I guess the real takeout here is that double com team is not more likely to lose, it seems.
+0 / -0
3 years ago
One more average guy:
recent games : 16 win / 8 loss
5+ months old: 21 win / 31 loss

Nothing solid, but looking at these feels like months ago it was 2 com loss likely, now more even or even turned around?
+0 / -0

3 years ago
I think it depend on team size. 5 vs 6/6 vs 7 can be more problematic with two coms then 12 vs 13 or even 15 vs 16. Its possible that smaller team sizes could be larger fail rate with two coms. At least i have seen it. Too much factors to make obstructive statement about two coms.
+0 / -0
Title: Map:
Players:

Player count: -
Age:
Mission: Bots: Rank: Victory:

Any way to get more option for the "age" for battle search? Any, today, this week and this month is kinda limited. Say I want to see only 7 months old results...
Could be easy to see win/loss results of uneven battles. Also the search giving the total number of battles would help. Maybe someone better has better battle history searches..?
+0 / -0


3 years ago
Hm, i think if we pick all non-Custom teamgames, we can infer the second commander from the teams being uneven with 1 player difference. Then the whole op could be one database query. I'll look into this later.
+2 / -0

3 years ago
quote:
did a 40 games survey of 2 coms for 1 team 3-ish months ago:


There's an 8% chance to see a deviation of 6 or higher from the average (20) with that amount of games by pure chance.
+0 / -0

3 years ago
quote:
Feels like this is a balance thing thats not really getting attention it should already get.

I don't remember how much progress was made with it or whether it is in fact already implemented, but there is a plan to put one player in the waiting list when the room is small and the number of people is odd.

So the problem has gotten some attention, but instead of a "game balance" problem it's being treated as a "just don't have these games happen" problem... which seems reasonable to me.
+3 / -0
In 7853 unbalanced battles of size 8v9 and up, the bigger team has a win chance of 51.11%. This statistic's deviation from the expected 50% still has a 4.8% chance of being purely due to chance. So we can't statistically confirm that the bigger team wins more or less than 50% of games.

In 25014 unbalanced battles of size 4v5 and up, the bigger team has a win chance of 52.76%. This statistic's deviation from the expected 50% has a chance of less than 0.0001% of being purely due to chance, so in 4v5+ the bigger team does seem to win more than 50%.
+8 / -0


3 years ago
I'd check game sizes 4v3 to 2v1 for win chances. I suspect that as game sizes grow, the difference that one player missing makes on win rate diminishes. I wonder how that would change if 2 comms could place their commanders separately.
+0 / -0


3 years ago
quote:
This statistic's deviation from the expected 50% still has a 4.8% chance of being purely due to chance p=0.048. So we can't statistically confirm that the bigger team wins more or less than 50% of games.

You'll never be a psychologist like this
+2 / -0
EErankAdminAnarchid
how big is the chance that the balancing-algorithm gets a degree in psychology?

AUrankAdminAquanim
maybe you could also make those games count less for the rating-algorithm. I suggested that to CHrankAdminDeinFreund originally for games that have very high internal rating-differences in a team. this of course wouldn`t solve the problem of people feeling bad about playing those games at all, but it might be an element to soften the negative feelings. I personally wouldn`t feel so disincentivised to play those games for example.
+1 / -0
3 years ago
Imho if anything changes, then it should be possible to choose 2 different starting positions and commanders as the player with 2 coms
+1 / -0
Is there any meaning to aim for a statistic of 50% win rate? Are players meant to be equal to each other? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of elo? Isn't it more important to make sure elo actually reflect individual level than to create a "balanced" game which also possible by allocating wrong elo?

For example, I have seen one player play about the same level as the other player yet the elo gap between them is 900. Don't make sense. Why would their elo gap be so wide when they play the same?
+1 / -0

3 years ago
EErankAdminAnarchid I specifically avoid this kind of standard notation since it's so commonly used by scientists who don't even know what statistic they're calculating. You at the very least have to write what p means, in this case the integral of the binomial distribution on the left and right flanks >= the given deviation.
+2 / -0
quote:
Is there any meaning to aim for a statistic of 50% win rate? Are players meant to be equal to each other?

Imagine two teams that are perfectly equal in strength, and they play 100 games without changing even one player, but of course adapting to each other and continuously changing strategies.

What should be their win rates?

quote:
For example, I have seen one player play about the same level as the other player yet the elo gap between them is 900. Don't make sense. Why would their elo gap be so wide when they play the same?

In the narrow sample where you observed that the two players could well play the same despite the rank gap, it's plausible that for the 900 elo higher it was an unfamiliar or just unfavorable situation. However, consider that there are many situations and environments in ZK that all influence the "casual" rating. It is likely that your higher-ranking player is significantly better in many of those.

Even the "lobsterpot" room continuously oscillates between modes such as 3v3 and 16v16 - those are entirely different settings with drastically different strategies and skills needed.
+1 / -0
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