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!predict is wrong! - New Prediction System for Teams

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Date Editor Before After
10/7/2015 2:20:21 PMDErankBrackman before revert after revert
10/7/2015 2:19:08 PMDErankBrackman before revert after revert
10/7/2015 2:18:29 PMDErankBrackman before revert after revert
10/7/2015 2:18:07 PMDErankBrackman before revert after revert
Before After
1 [spoiler]I have found out that using smes for 8v8 or bigger even teams and sqrt sm otherwise is best. 1 [spoiler]I have found out that using smes for 8v8 or bigger even teams and sqrt sm otherwise is best.
2 \n 2 \n
3 Also the 2 coms team wins exactly as often as the bigger team. Maybe the system compensates its own missweighting of 2 com players by distortions in the elo scale (my tested systems do the same so far). 3 Also the 2 coms team wins exactly as often as the bigger team. Maybe the system compensates its own missweighting of 2 com players by distortions in the elo scale (my tested systems do the same so far).
4 @Skasi I have thought of giving 2 coms players higher weighting when calculating averages, but not tested yet. (Comparing sums of different numbers of elos however would arbitrarily add/subtract 1500 and would no longer be invariant to shifts of the elo scale.)[/spoiler] 4 @Skasi I have thought of giving 2 coms players higher weighting when calculating averages, but not tested yet. (Comparing sums of different numbers of elos however would arbitrarily add/subtract 1500 and would no longer be invariant to shifts of the elo scale.)[/spoiler]
5 [quote]* Did you replicate existing system first? That means calculating elo progress over time for each player over time, using ZK's weighted elo? 5 [quote]* Did you replicate existing system first? That means calculating elo progress over time for each player over time, using ZK's weighted elo?
6 * Did you compare ZK's weighted elo average to your predictor and see that your predictor is better than ZK's? That means it predicted the winner more reliably than weighted elo?[/quote]@KingRaptor's data already included players' elos and teams' averages. I don't know whether it considered weighting and progress with the current system, but I doubt it. I don't even know how the weighted average is calculated currently nor how elo wins and losses are distributed within a team with weightings. If @KingRaptor's data already included it ( unlikely) , my systems will probably only get better when using their own elo progress. If not, all systems will probably become a bit better and we don't know by how much. In any case my systems could use the same weightings. 6 * Did you compare ZK's weighted elo average to your predictor and see that your predictor is better than ZK's? That means it predicted the winner more reliably than weighted elo?[/quote]@KingRaptor's data already included players' elos and teams' averages. I don't know whether it considered weighting and progress with the current system, but I doubt it. I don't even know how the weighted average is calculated currently nor how elo wins and losses are distributed within a team with weightings. If @KingRaptor's data already included it ( unlikely) , my systems will probably get even better when using their own elo progress. If not, all systems will probably become a bit better and we don't know by how much. In any case my systems could use the same weightings.
7 \n 7 \n
8 I only know that the total elo win (loss) of a team with winning (loosing) probability p must be (1-p)*f(p), where f>0 any function with a line of symmetry at 50% (e.g. f(p)=c*(p*(1-p))^z) to guarantee the expectation value of elo change is zero. Probably z=0,f=c=30 is used currently. I still don't know how weighted average and weighted elo change is calculated, though. 8 I only know that the total elo win (loss) of a team with winning (loosing) probability p must be (1-p)*f(p), where f>0 any function with a line of symmetry at 50% (e.g. f(p)=c*(p*(1-p))^z) to guarantee the expectation value of elo change is zero. Probably z=0,f=c=30 is used currently. I still don't know how weighted average and weighted elo change is calculated, though.
9 \n 9 \n
10 Thanks for the data, @Anarchid. Should I assume that all players have elo 1500 in the beginning? If you can include the elos that the players had respectively at the time of those games and their weighted team average, I don't have to write an own programm for the test. Recalculating and storing all players' elos will be quite extensive. At best there would be 2 columns for the teams' weighted averages and 32 columns for the player elo slots, where the looser team always starts at the 17th of those columns like in @KingRaptor's data. If "smes" or "sqrt sm" will be better than current even when using current elo progress, they will probably be even better, when using their own. But for testing them with their own progress it might be easier to use existing zk infrastructure than coding new programms. 10 Thanks for the data, @Anarchid. Should I assume that all players have elo 1500 in the beginning? If you can include the elos that the players had respectively at the time of those games and their weighted team average, I don't have to write an own programm for the test. Recalculating and storing all players' elos will be quite extensive. At best there would be 2 columns for the teams' weighted averages and 32 columns for the player elo slots, where the looser team always starts at the 17th of those columns like in @KingRaptor's data. If "smes" or "sqrt sm" will be better than current even when using current elo progress, they will probably be even better, when using their own. But for testing them with their own progress it might be easier to use existing zk infrastructure than coding new programms.