| 1 |
I
was
actually
just
searching
posts
to
see
how
often
you
guys
post
game
matchup
data.
So
excited
to
see
that
you
just
added
much
so
much
more.
I've
spent
a
lot
of
time
since
I
first
saw
this
-
trying
to
analyze
the
statistical
implications
to
try
to
figure
out
if
it's
relevant
to
balance
or
not.
Its
actually
an
really
interesting
question,
and
just
the
kind
of
thing
I
like
mulling
over.
|
1 |
I
was
actually
just
searching
posts
to
see
how
often
you
guys
post
game
matchup
data.
So
excited
to
see
that
you
just
added
so
much
more.
I've
spent
a
lot
of
time
since
I
first
saw
this
-
trying
to
analyze
the
statistical
implications
to
try
to
figure
out
if
it's
relevant
to
balance
or
not.
Its
actually
an
really
interesting
question,
and
just
the
kind
of
thing
I
like
mulling
over.
|
| 2 |
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|
2 |
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|
| 3 |
The problem comes down largely to selection bias. If there was extra "mystery factory" button ingame to place your first factory as random (in the name of science of course) that would be a different story. (Now that I think about it, even then there would be plenty of selection bias because which map you felt like going random on, and how wasted you are when you choose random, and maybe tanks are easier to play wasted).
|
3 |
The problem comes down largely to selection bias. If there was extra "mystery factory" button ingame to place your first factory as random (in the name of science of course) that would be a different story. (Now that I think about it, even then there would be plenty of selection bias because which map you felt like going random on, and how wasted you are when you choose random, and maybe tanks are easier to play wasted).
|
| 4 |
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|
4 |
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|
| 5 |
But even then, if the choice of "choosing random" was forced and randomized, even then you'd still have plenty of factors like gameplay-meta and preconceptions-of-the-day affecting gameplay, although I suppose that just needs to be accepted as unavoidable.
|
5 |
But even then, if the choice of "choosing random" was forced and randomized, even then you'd still have plenty of factors like gameplay-meta and preconceptions-of-the-day affecting gameplay, although I suppose that just needs to be accepted as unavoidable.
|
| 6 |
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|
6 |
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|
| 7 |
Before I go any further, I have to say that it's extremely impressive how close to 50% these are. 53% considered dominating? I think you can call that a success and give yourself a pat on the back, at least for *that* specific number. Sure the wind may be blowing at 1.2 kph right now and you're worried you're not optimized, but in 30 seconds the wind's gonna change to 2.0 anyway. E.G. tiny optimizations will be nothing compared to the flow of meta. Someone could post a lobster meme thread tomorrow, boost amph usage across the board 30%, even on maps amph clearly shouldn't be used on (although I'm curious about that Amph-stealth-OP hypothesis :D ), and consequently see amph win ratio decrease 7% for a month.
|
7 |
Before I go any further, I have to say that it's extremely impressive how close to 50% these are. 53% considered dominating? I think you can call that a success and give yourself a pat on the back, at least for *that* specific number. Sure the wind may be blowing at 1.2 kph right now and you're worried you're not optimized, but in 30 seconds the wind's gonna change to 2.0 anyway. E.G. tiny optimizations will be nothing compared to the flow of meta. Someone could post a lobster meme thread tomorrow, boost amph usage across the board 30%, even on maps amph clearly shouldn't be used on (although I'm curious about that Amph-stealth-OP hypothesis :D ), and consequently see amph win ratio decrease 7% for a month.
|
| 8 |
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|
8 |
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|
| 9 |
But, the juiciest part: biases that could affect the data that we have here. For instance, let's say people like going gunships for fun, you'll see them played even on maps that they might be only a suboptimal 40% on. If you buff gunships to compensate for these win reductions, then there might be even worse maps that people are now willing to have fun with gunships on, and create a self-reinforcing balance nightmare. And the opposite goes for facs people *don't* prefer.
|
9 |
But, the juiciest part: biases that could affect the data that we have here. For instance, let's say people like going gunships for fun, you'll see them played even on maps that they might be only a suboptimal 40% on. If you buff gunships to compensate for these win reductions, then there might be even worse maps that people are now willing to have fun with gunships on, and create a self-reinforcing balance nightmare. And the opposite goes for facs people *don't* prefer.
|
| 10 |
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|
10 |
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|
| 11 |
Was gonna add more, will maybe do so later.
|
11 |
Was gonna add more, will maybe do so later.
|
1v1 Matchup data for 9th to 17th of May