| 1 |
If you flip a coin for a while you are quite likely to get a fairly long run of heads or tails fairly often. That is pretty straightforward statistics; tedious to prove analytically, much more obvious if you read some simulated output.
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1 |
If you flip a coin for a while you are quite likely to get a fairly long run of heads or tails fairly often. That is pretty straightforward statistics; tedious to prove analytically, much more obvious if you read some simulated output.
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| 2 |
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2 |
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| 3 |
[url=https://www.random.org/cgi-bin/randbyte?nbytes=1000&format=b]This link[/url] prints out the outcome of 1000 coinflips, which is about the number of games you've played. I tried running it a few times and routinely found "loss"/zero streaks of 12 [b]consecutive[/b] games or more. The event you described (losing 12 more games than you win over a longer period) is FAR more likely than this.
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3 |
[url=https://www.random.org/cgi-bin/randbyte?nbytes=1000&format=b]This link[/url] prints out the outcome of 1000 coinflips, which is about the number of games you've played. I tried running it a few times and routinely found "loss"/zero streaks of 12 [b]consecutive[/b] games or more. The event you described (losing 12 more games than you win over a longer period) is FAR more likely than this.
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| 4 |
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4 |
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| 5 |
[spoiler]You
might
think
that
the
outcome
of
ZK
games
is
not
[b]exactly[/b]
like
a
coinflip
in
that
if
you
lose
a
lot
your
ranking
decreases
which
will
give
you
easier
games.
However,
if
you
are
playing
large
team
games
relatively
frequently
this
effect
will
be
very,
very
small
-
if
only
because
an
individual's
influence
on
the
outcome
of
many
team
games
is
often
small.
I
think
@DaKeys
recently
had
a
50%
or
better
winrate
in
the
subset
of
games
where
he
literally
didn't
play
at
all.
[/spoiler]
|
5 |
[spoiler]You
might
think
that
the
outcome
of
ZK
games
is
not
[b]exactly[/b]
like
a
coinflip
in
that
if
you
lose
a
lot
your
ranking
decreases
which
will
give
you
easier
games.
However,
if
you
are
playing
large
team
games
relatively
frequently
this
effect
will
be
very,
very
small
-
if
only
because
an
individual's
influence
on
the
outcome
of
many
team
games
is
often
small.
[/spoiler]
|
| 6 |
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6 |
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| 7 |
Your position on the leaderboard has [b]literally[/b] nothing to do with any of this. Only your rating number matters.
|
7 |
Your position on the leaderboard has [b]literally[/b] nothing to do with any of this. Only your rating number matters.
|
| 8 |
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8 |
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| 9 |
The rating system is opaque enough to me that I can't rule out your rating going up a lot suddenly (especially in conjunction with the server move or some such).
|
9 |
The rating system is opaque enough to me that I can't rule out your rating going up a lot suddenly (especially in conjunction with the server move or some such).
|
People falling from ladders is not fun?