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I've been noticing some oddities with the games that I've been in, where the chance for victory of each match shows around 53% victory for all games I've won, the games I lose end up having around a 47% chance of victory.
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1 |
I've been noticing some oddities with the games that I've been in, where the chance for victory of each match shows around 53% victory for all games I've won, the games I lose end up having around a 47% chance of victory.
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Thought that was strange, so I did some digging and scraped all games with >20 players from the past month and pulled out their chance of victory for some simple stats. Turns out that if there's even a *slight* chance of victory advantage, it reflects a greater than slight advantage. This chart reflects the chance of victory for both sides for 441 games, so adding all up from 0% - 100% winning on each side, there's 441 wins and 441 losses.
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Thought that was strange, so I did some digging and scraped all games with >20 players from the past month and pulled out their chance of victory for some simple stats. Turns out that if there's even a *slight* chance of victory advantage, it reflects a greater than slight advantage. This chart reflects the chance of victory for both sides for 441 games, so adding all up from 0% - 100% winning on each side, there's 441 wins and 441 losses.
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|| Lost # || Won # || % Chance of Victory ||
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|| Lost # || Won # || % Chance of Victory ||
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| 6 |
|| 11 || 11 || 50-50.5 ||
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6 |
|| 11 || 11 || 50-50.5 ||
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|| 19 || 26 || 50-51.0 ||
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7 |
|| 19 || 26 || 50-51.0 ||
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|| 27 || 47 || 50-51.5 ||
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8 |
|| 27 || 47 || 50-51.5 ||
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|| 34 || 63 || 50-52.0 ||
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9 |
|| 34 || 63 || 50-52.0 ||
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| 10 |
|| 42 || 80 || 50-52.5 ||
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10 |
|| 42 || 80 || 50-52.5 ||
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| 11 |
|| 50 || 102 || 50-53.0 ||
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11 |
|| 50 || 102 || 50-53.0 ||
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| 12 |
|| 55 || 125 || 50-53.5 ||
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12 |
|| 55 || 125 || 50-53.5 ||
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| 13 |
|| 57 || 151 || 50-54.0 ||
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13 |
|| 57 || 151 || 50-54.0 ||
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| 14 |
|| 71 || 185 || 50-55.0 ||
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14 |
|| 71 || 185 || 50-55.0 ||
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Balance might be a bit wonky!
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Balance might be a bit wonky!
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Edit: going further, every game from today is like that -- no winning team has a positive % chance of winning. I'm willing to bet that's because each player's stats are boosted post-game, which causes post-calculations to heavily lean in one direction or the other.. but to see that with every game is a bit odd IMO.
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People falling from ladders is not fun?