| 1 |
k you cant do that many in google docs, only managed to do 73(max 255 but it froze) before i ran out of columns
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1 |
k you cant do that many in google docs, only managed to do 73(max 255 but it froze) before i ran out of columns
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| 2 |
avrage: +18 win chance for the winners
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2 |
avrage: +18 win chance for the winners
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| 3 |
\n
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3 |
\n
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| 4 |
:D now how do you feel about gambling on some team game results?
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4 |
:D now how do you feel about gambling on some team game results?
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| 5 |
\n
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5 |
\n
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| 6 |
ok i have now done the whole 888 games in the data set that i considered valid results
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6 |
ok i have now done the whole 888 games in the data set that i considered valid results
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| 7 |
i culled the rest due to:
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7 |
i culled the rest due to:
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| 8 |
more then 200 avg ELO distance betwen teams (300 roughly, max was over 800)
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8 |
more then 200 avg ELO distance betwen teams (300 roughly, max was over 800)
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| 9 |
less then 4v4 (500 roughly)
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9 |
less then 4v4 (500 roughly)
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| 10 |
chickens (5)
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10 |
chickens (5)
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| 11 |
highly anomalus values (|win chance|>150) (9 total)
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11 |
highly anomalus values (|win chance|>150) (9 total)
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| 12 |
(4:+150, 3:-150, did you know one game was a 4v10 (and the 10 lost))
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12 |
(4:+150, 3:-150, did you know one game was a 4v10 (and the 10 lost))
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| 13 |
\n
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13 |
\n
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| 14 |
after puting the results through excel
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14 |
after puting the results through excel
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| 15 |
winning teams had on avarage 9.48 higher win chance then losers (49stdev, median 10)
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15 |
winning teams had on avarage 9.48 higher win chance then losers (49stdev, median 10)
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| 16 |
\n
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16 |
\n
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| 17 |
of the 888 games, 537 were accurately predicted
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17 |
of the 888 games, 537 were accurately predicted
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| 18 |
401 had a win chance of +15 or more (i would put money on these)
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18 |
401 had a win chance of +15 or more (i would put money on these)
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| 19 |
252 were indeterminate (win chance of +15 to -15)
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19 |
252 were indeterminate (win chance of +15 to -15)
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| 20 |
234 had a win chance of greater then -15 (i would have lost money on these)
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20 |
234 had a win chance of greater then -15 (i would have lost money on these)
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| 21 |
\n
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21 |
\n
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| 22 |
my winnings are +167
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22 |
my winnings are +167
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| 23 |
using a +15 limmit (30% chance one team will beat the other)
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23 |
using a +15 limmit (30% chance one team will beat the other)
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| 24 |
45% chance to accurately predict the outcome of a game
|
24 |
45% chance to accurately predict the outcome of a game
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| 25 |
28% indeterminate (games balanced enough that prediction would be unreliable)
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25 |
28% indeterminate (games balanced enough that prediction would be unreliable)
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| 26 |
26% cance for false positive
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26 |
26% cance for false positive
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Alternative balance