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Predictiveness of the new ELO Split in 1v1-4v4

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Date Editor Before After
9/18/2016 6:50:14 PMGBrankAdminDeinFreund before revert after revert
9/18/2016 6:49:38 PMGBrankAdminDeinFreund before revert after revert
9/18/2016 6:20:05 PMGBrankAdminDeinFreund before revert after revert
Before After
1 We have the tools, so there's no point guessing about whether it's better to have different ELO values for 1v1/2v2-4v4 or to merge them into a single value. I have evaluated multiple possible systems using [url=http://zero-k.info/Forum/Thread/22898]this scoring[/url]. 1 We have the tools, so there's no point guessing about whether it's better to have different ELO values for 1v1/2v2-4v4 or to merge them into a single value. I have evaluated multiple possible systems using [url=http://zero-k.info/Forum/Thread/22898]this scoring[/url].
2 \n 2 \n
3 == ZK ELO == 3 == ZK ELO ==
4 Elo as it is currently implemented in Zero-K except for leaving out newbie malus(which only matters little in the long run). The old prefix refers to using K=32 instead of K=64. 4 Elo as it is currently implemented in Zero-K except for leaving out newbie malus(which only matters little in the long run). The old prefix refers to using K=32 instead of K=64.
5 \n 5 \n
6 == Split ELO == 6 == Split ELO ==
7 Using two different Elo values, one for games with more than S players and one for the others. Otherwise the same as ZK ELO. 7 Using two different Elo values, one for games with more than S players and one for the others. Otherwise the same as ZK ELO.
8 \n 8 \n
9 == Interpolated ELO == 9 == Interpolated ELO ==
10 Using two different Elo values and weighting them with S/Players(Max. weight = 1). Suggested by @Brackman 10 Using two different Elo values and weighting them with S/Players(Max. weight = 1). Suggested by @Brackman
11 \n 11 \n
12 == Linear Mixed ELO == 12 == Linear Mixed ELO ==
13 Using N different Elo values, each one for a specific player count, linearly interpolating them in between. 13 Using N different Elo values, each one for a specific player count, linearly interpolating them in between.
14 \n 14 \n
15 == Always 0.5 == 15 == Always 0.5 ==
16 Dummy rating system that will always return equal chances. This would lead to random balance. 16 Dummy rating system that will always return equal chances. This would lead to random balance.
17 \n 17 \n
18 == Results == 18 == Results ==
19 These systems were evaluated over all even 1v1-4v4 battles not played on a funny map or against bots. 19 These systems were evaluated over all even 1v1-4v4 battles not played on a funny map or against bots.
20 \n 20 \n
21 Scores: 21 Scores:
22 { { { Always 0. 5: 0. 0 22 { { { Interp ELO ( S=5, K=64) : 0. 1789421646708225
23 Interp ELO ( S=5, K=64) : 0. 1789421646708225 23 ZK Elo: 0. 17810675231268006
24 Lin Mix ELO (2, 8): 0.17601081142739458 24 Lin Mix ELO (2, 8): 0.17601081142739458
25 Split ELO (S=4, K=64): 0.1711465984015903 25 Split ELO (S=4, K=64): 0.1711465984015903
26 ZK Elo: 0. 17810675231268006 26 Old ZK Elo: 0. 16988054006151806
27 Old ZK Elo: 0. 16988054006151806} } } 27 Always 0. 5: 0. 0} } }
28 \n 28 \n
29 As you see, splitting the games is actually a bad idea, it reduces the available data to calculate ratings from. The single ELO value is only beaten with little margin by the interpolated one. 29 As you see, splitting the games is actually a bad idea, it reduces the available data to calculate ratings from. The single ELO value is only beaten with little margin by the interpolated one.
30 \n 30 \n
31 I have also tried different constants for the systems, but limited it to the best result for each system. 31 I have also tried different constants for the systems, but limited it to the best result for each system.