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People falling from ladders is not fun?

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Date Editor Before After
5/17/2020 8:29:08 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:28:56 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:27:20 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:19:15 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:18:45 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:18:12 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:17:26 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:17:18 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:16:17 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:15:54 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:12:43 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:10:17 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:09:43 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:09:23 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:08:34 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:08:17 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:07:57 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
5/17/2020 8:06:53 AMAUrankAdminAquanim before revert after revert
Before After
1 If you flip a coin for a while you are quite likely to get a fairly long run of heads or tails fairly often. That is pretty straightforward statistics; tedious to prove analytically, much more obvious if you read some simulated output. 1 If you flip a coin for a while you are quite likely to get a fairly long run of heads or tails fairly often. That is pretty straightforward statistics; tedious to prove analytically, much more obvious if you read some simulated output.
2 \n 2 \n
3 [url=https://www.random.org/cgi-bin/randbyte?nbytes=1000&format=b]This link[/url] prints out the outcome of 1000 coinflips, which is about the number of games you've played. I tried running it a few times and routinely found "loss"/zero streaks of 12 [b]consecutive[/b] games or more. The event you described (losing 12 more games than you win over a longer period) is FAR more likely than this. 3 [url=https://www.random.org/cgi-bin/randbyte?nbytes=1000&format=b]This link[/url] prints out the outcome of 1000 coinflips, which is about the number of games you've played. I tried running it a few times and routinely found "loss"/zero streaks of 12 [b]consecutive[/b] games or more. The event you described (losing 12 more games than you win over a longer period) is FAR more likely than this.
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5 [spoiler]You might think that the outcome of ZK games is not [b]exactly[/b] like a coinflip in that if you lose a lot your ranking decreases which will give you easier games. However, if you are playing large team games relatively frequently this effect will be very, very small - if only because an individual's influence on the outcome of many team games is often small. I think @DaKeys recently had a 50% or better winrate in the subset of games where he literally didn't play at all. [/spoiler] 5 [spoiler]You might think that the outcome of ZK games is not [b]exactly[/b] like a coinflip in that if you lose a lot your ranking decreases which will give you easier games. However, if you are playing large team games relatively frequently this effect will be very, very small - if only because an individual's influence on the outcome of many team games is often small. [/spoiler]
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7 Your position on the leaderboard has [b]literally[/b] nothing to do with any of this. Only your rating number matters. 7 Your position on the leaderboard has [b]literally[/b] nothing to do with any of this. Only your rating number matters.
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9 The rating system is opaque enough to me that I can't rule out your rating going up a lot suddenly (especially in conjunction with the server move or some such). 9 The rating system is opaque enough to me that I can't rule out your rating going up a lot suddenly (especially in conjunction with the server move or some such).