| 1 |
Here's
a
suggestion:
|
1 |
The
problem
is
a
simple
average
of
ratings
is
not
a
good
predictor
of
which
team
will
win.
Here's
a
suggestion
to
find
a
better
predictor:
|
| 2 |
* Provide a public database or file of the outcomes of a large number of recent team games. Each game record lists the WHR ratings for each team member on each team, and the outcome (which team won).
|
2 |
* Provide a public database or file of the outcomes of a large number of recent team games. Each game record lists the WHR ratings for each team member on each team, and the outcome (which team won).
|
| 3 |
* Challenge players and developers to use the database to come up with a simple algorithm that predicts outcome based on ratings. This is a function f(team1_ratings, team2_ratings) = probability team 1 wins. People might contribute several candidate algorithms for this.
|
3 |
* Challenge players and developers to use the database to come up with a simple algorithm that predicts outcome based on ratings. This is a function f(team1_ratings, team2_ratings) = probability team 1 wins. People might contribute several candidate algorithms for this.
|
| 4 |
* Find the f that fits the data best, using the cross entropy loss function, and is reasonably simple.
|
4 |
* Find the f that fits the data best, using the cross entropy loss function, and is reasonably simple.
|
| 5 |
* Balance teams by assigning players in a way that makes f(team1_ratings, team2_ratings) as close to 0.5 as possible.
|
5 |
* Balance teams by assigning players in a way that makes f(team1_ratings, team2_ratings) as close to 0.5 as possible.
|
Balancer is awful.