1 |
Here's
a
mathematical
line
of
reasoning
that
supports
@TinySpider:
A
system
consists
of
a
calculation
system
and
a
choice
of
considered
games.
The
system
that
was
originally
used
at
the
time
produced
team
games
with
chances
close
to
50%.
If
we
analyze
the
data
with
a
different
system,
chances
will
deviate
more
from
50%.
If
the
calculation
system
is
inherently
too
close
or
too
far
away
from
50%
or
the
used
scoring
rule
inherently
overly
punishes
being
too
close
or
too
far
away
from
50%,
we
get
a
scoring
distortion
depending
on
whether
the
system
is
further
away
from
the
original
system.
|
1 |
Here's
a
mathematical
line
of
reasoning
that
supports
@TinySpider:
A
system
consists
of
a
calculation
system
and
a
choice
of
considered
games.
The
system
that
was
originally
used
at
the
time
produced
team
games
with
chances
close
to
50%.
If
we
analyze
the
data
with
a
different
system,
chances
will
deviate
more
from
50%.
If
the
calculation
system
is
inherently
too
close
or
too
far
away
from
50%
according
to
the
used
scoring
rule
(
which
may
be
because
the
scoring
rule
inherently
overly
punishes
being
too
close
or
too
far
away
from
50%)
,
we
get
a
scoring
distortion
depending
on
whether
the
system
is
further
away
from
the
original
system.
|
3 |
I'm
not
sure
if
this
effect
really
matters
as
long
as
we
use
a
good
calculation
system
and
a
good
scoring
rule.
The
scoring
rule
is
good.
Now
we
have
to
get
the
calculation
system
right.
To
do
that,
we
should
[url=https://zero-k.
info/Forum/Post/250773#250773]remove
the
0.
5
fudge
(
only
second
half
of
the
post)
[/url]
and
see
the
results,
then
[url=https://zero-k.
info/Forum/Post/250763#250763]change
denom[/url]
and
see
the
results.
If
they
are
still
negative,
play
around
with
[url=https://zero-k.
info/Forum/Post/250760#250760]D
mod[/url].
|
3 |
I'm
not
sure
if
this
effect
really
matters
as
long
as
we
use
a
good
scoring
rule
and
a
system
that
is
good
according
to
this
scoring
rule.
The
scoring
rule
is
good.
Now
we
have
to
get
the
calculation
system
right.
To
do
that,
we
should
[url=https://zero-k.
info/Forum/Post/250773#250773]remove
the
0.
5
fudge
(
only
second
half
of
the
post)
[/url]
and
see
the
results,
then
[url=https://zero-k.
info/Forum/Post/250763#250763]change
denom[/url]
and
see
the
results.
If
they
are
still
negative,
play
around
with
[url=https://zero-k.
info/Forum/Post/250760#250760]D
mod[/url].
By
fitting
the
D
mod
to
maximize
the
log
score,
it
should
be
possible
to
eliminate
the
effect.
|