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When I watched this game live I expected the north team (opposing the Revenant) to win for the first two minutes (as you can see in spectator chat). At the fifty second mark this is the map from North's perspective, having chased off a few scouting fleas from @mankarse (in red) and hence having determined one enemy factory:
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When I watched this game live I expected the north team (opposing the Revenant) to win for the first two minutes (as you can see in spectator chat). At the fifty second mark this is the map from North's perspective, having chased off a few scouting fleas from @mankarse (in red) and hence having determined one enemy factory:
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[spoiler][img]https://i.imgur.com/ph5ggAt.png[/img][/spoiler]
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[spoiler][img]https://i.imgur.com/ph5ggAt.png[/img][/spoiler]
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(I can't be bothered getting a full-LoS image for this moment. Suffice it to say that outside of their high ground South has one singular flea and North, with their commanding map control, knows there is nothing more meaningful than Fleas lurking around.)
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(I can't be bothered getting a full-LoS image for this moment. Suffice it to say that outside of their high ground South has one singular flea and North, with their commanding map control, knows there is nothing more meaningful than Fleas lurking around.)
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We briefly saw one weaver at the top of South team's ramp. It was deterred from expanding by a single glaive. I think even at this early stage we can at least begin to suspect something fishy is going on. At this point it might be just an Ogre rush or something else relatively tame.
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We briefly saw one weaver at the top of South team's ramp. It was deterred from expanding by a single glaive. I think even at this early stage we can at least begin to suspect something fishy is going on. At this point it might be just an Ogre rush or something else relatively tame.
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@izirayd's commander (in yellow) chases off our glaive and begins to expand to the natural.
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@izirayd's commander (in yellow) chases off our glaive and begins to expand to the natural.
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In the next minute or so @mankarse's commander comes out to the middle mex, but nothing else interesting is happening. We have seen no combat units from @mankarse even on radar (although in reality he has a few Venoms just outside our radar and vision) and [b]we have seen no units from @izirayd at all[/b]. This is what we see at the two minute mark:
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In the next minute or so @mankarse's commander comes out to the middle mex, but nothing else interesting is happening. We have seen no combat units from @mankarse even on radar (although in reality he has a few Venoms just outside our radar and vision) and [b]we have seen no units from @izirayd at all[/b]. This is what we see at the two minute mark:
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[spoiler][img]https://i.imgur.com/j66rq41.png[/img][/spoiler]
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[spoiler][img]https://i.imgur.com/j66rq41.png[/img][/spoiler]
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I think at this point alarm bells should be going off in one's head. We [b]still[/b] haven't seen anything which makes South's slow start make sense - which means there's something we haven't seen yet. Given what we know, it's probably either a Widow or (more likely) something out of @izirayd's unknown factory, since it must have been building [b]something[/b].
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I think at this point alarm bells should be going off in one's head. We [b]still[/b] haven't seen anything which makes South's slow start make sense - which means there's something we haven't seen yet. Given what we know, it's probably either a Widow or (more likely) something out of @izirayd's unknown factory, since it must have been building [b]something[/b].
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This is the global line of sight:
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This is the global line of sight:
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[spoiler][img]https://i.imgur.com/X8myevb.png[/img][/spoiler]
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[spoiler][img]https://i.imgur.com/X8myevb.png[/img][/spoiler]
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After this @DasFapitale's recon commander (in green) walks into the south-east lowground alone, while the Glaives/Ronin/Venom army goes west to harass @mankarse's com. @DasFapitale's com gets caught by the Gnats, Revenant, and @izirayd's commander, and although some Glaives arrive around when the Revenant does it is too little too late. The game is now out of control.
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After this @DasFapitale's recon commander (in green) walks into the south-east lowground alone, while the Glaives/Ronin/Venom army goes west to harass @mankarse's com. @DasFapitale's com gets caught by the Gnats, Revenant, and @izirayd's commander, and although some Glaives arrive around when the Revenant does it is too little too late. The game is now out of control.
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I haven't taken control of the replay to test it, but I expect that if the recon commander does not go lowground and the cloaky army stays a bit closer, @izirayd does not get a kill here. Either the Glaives would be in range to fight the Gnats before the Revenant arrives, or the Gnats would slow down to arrive with the Revenant and hence not force an early jump. I would be very confident of beating the Revenant if the Venoms were also a part of the fight.
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I haven't taken control of the replay to test it, but I expect that if the recon commander does not go lowground and the cloaky army stays a bit closer, @izirayd does not get a kill here. Either the Glaives would be in range to fight the Gnats before the Revenant arrives, or the Gnats would slow down to arrive with the Revenant and hence not force an early jump. I would be very confident of beating the Revenant if the Venoms were also a part of the fight.
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Furthermore, if this fight had started a bit closer to North's base @nanouf's Widow would have arrived in time to stun @izirayd's commander, although I think @izirayd would probably not even choose to commit the commander to a fight starting on the highground.
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Furthermore, if this fight had started a bit closer to North's base @nanouf's Widow would have arrived in time to stun @izirayd's commander, although I think @izirayd would probably not even choose to commit the commander to a fight starting on the highground.
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If @DasFapitale's com doesn't get caught here, and assuming the Revenant doesn't suicide trying to catch it, what happens next? Who knows. I think I would give North team the edge, but there is still a lot of game to play.
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tl;dr: I think that north team had enough information to at least guess *something* nasty was coming, and play a bit more cautiously. North knows they have an expansion advantage over South at the two-minute mark and do not need to get adventurous to maintain that advantage.
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tl;dr: I think that north team had enough information to at least guess *something* nasty was coming, and play a bit more cautiously. North knows they have an expansion advantage over South at the two-minute mark and do not need to get adventurous to maintain that advantage.
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[spoiler]A Revenant isn't the only possibility that would be countered by slightly more cautious play. For example, a Widow out of @mankarse's known spider factory - and remember, we've seen no units out of him beyond a few Fleas, although in reality he did have some - would also probably have been fatal to @DasFapitale's com where it was positioned on the lowground.[/spoiler]
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[spoiler]A Revenant isn't the only possibility that would be countered by slightly more cautious play. For example, a Widow out of @mankarse's known spider factory - and remember, we've seen no units out of him beyond a few Fleas, although in reality he did have some - would also probably have been fatal to @DasFapitale's com where it was positioned on the lowground.[/spoiler]
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B1941365 4 on Ravaged_v2 (Multiplayer)