Analysed here: https://zero-k.info/Forum/Post/262773#262773

quote: His lobsterballing was extremely effective, transforming a very definite loser into something he had more of a chance with (you were crushing on map control, eco and army size and that swapped with the appearance of the lobsterball). The only balls he losses are due to mismicro (failing to jump away despite plenty of time and warning).

I disagree with the part about transforming a loss into something with a chance. Basically, I think the Amph Factory causes the apparent loss. Look at the game at 5:00.

• The mexes are 12 vs. 11, in the favour of Spider.
• Shield has 600 more metal produced.
• Shield has 230 more metal lost.
• Now look at army value, shield has 750 compared to 1420 for Spider.

The difference is that Shield has just completed an Amph factory, costing 700 metal.

Shield could have twice their army out on the field, doing stuff in the next few minutes, if the factory was not built. That metal could be something like ThugLaw, or some Rogue to push the forward Lotus being built by the enemy commander. The point is that you should expect to lose map control by switching to another factory rather than doubling your army, whether Shield has good options at this point in the game is another question.

By 6:00 Shield has lost most of their Bandits to attacking two Lotus and Venom, and basically just have a Felon in their base. The Shield commander dies to a Widow while there are very few units to defend it.

An early lobsterball is revealed at 7:40 and starts doing things. It cost the Shield player three minutes, 2700 metal, and most of the map. It kills the enemy commander and starts trying to take back the map, but that feels like a moot point. It lost the map while it was being built up, and didn't ever look to me like it could seriously take it back, as Spider had a decent income lead throughout the rest of the game. A switch to Cyclops would do the same - kill a commander when it is revealed, push a bit, then get outmaneuvered and countered.

Not that the Lobster Ball couldn't have worked. With some better control and a read (or a Sparrow), the ball around the South at 15:00 may have been able to dive the Spider base. But that isn't a problem either. Lobsterball isn't supposed to be bad, just balanced. Rushing it seems tricky from this game, but could work. It is also notable that Spider prettymuch pumped units the rest of the game, while the Shield side had to make a complicated composition from two factories and spent the game managing at least two balls. It wasn't like the lobsterball afforded the Shield player an easier game to manage.